
Well, the answer to that question is tough to provide with any certainty. One thing that is sure, you have to dig pretty far down into the poll results to find any positives for Senator McCain. With forty-two days until the election, Senator Obama has taken a 8-point lead, nationally, among likely voters.
But that's just the beginning of the McCain disaster outlined in the full poll. Across large demographic swaths of the electorate, Senator Obama is enjoying the lead. Immediately following the conventions, white women favored McCain by 11 points, but now Obama has a slight lead of two percent. White Catholics favored the GOP ticket by 19 following the conventions; now the Dems have drawn that race to a dead heat. Independents, who favored McCain by 10 two weeks ago, now break for Obama by 14. Voters in the Midwest, who've been targeted by both campaigns lately, have shifted from +11 for McCain to +13 for Obama. McCain does hold a 14 point lead among white men, but that's down from 28 points after the conventions.
Worse for McCain, Obama has gained ground on issues typically seen as solid McCain strengths. Two weeks ago, McCain led by 10 in trust to handle the Iraq war; now, Obama leads by 4. McCain's 20-point lead on the issue of handling terrorism has all but vanished, as well; now, Obama only trails by 4. What does these numbers mean? Basically, the GOP argument that the recent polling shifts favoring Obama are economics driven is not entirely true. Obama is enjoying improvement in his numbers across all issues, not just the economy.
Don't get me wrong, though, the economy's downturn has favored Obama. 53% of respondents list the economy as the most important issue facing the nation this year, and Obama beats McCain 53-39 on ability to handle the economic. He also bests McCain (51-38) on ability to resolve the banking crisis.
Finally, on personality issues, Obama takes a lead in all categories in this poll: would do more to bring needed change to Washington (58-33); better understands the economic problems people in this country are having (57-33); is more honest and trustworthy (47-36); and is the stronger leader (47-46).
None of these numbers, except possibly his double-digit lead among white men, can be too comforting for Senator McCain. He's spent two weeks attacking Senator Obama on virtually all of these points, but, as the ABC News poll shows, the attacks haven't stuck. In fact, with several media outlets (including Fox News) calling the McCain campaign on its lies in anti-Obama ads, McCain may have shot himself in the foot on the trustworthiness issue. It remains to be seen how the three presidential debates may affect the polling, but with Obama heading into the foreign policy debate with much-improved numbers in that category may shield him from the polling fall off many pundits are predicting after Friday's debate on MSNBC.
Indeed, if there's any good news for McCain in this latest poll, it's this: the date. It's almost over.
The current polls are exciting; however, we are still more than five weeks away from the election.
At any moment, events can impinge on the status of the candidates; and,
The Swift Boats are a-coming, they're comin' tonight.
How Obama weathers the onslaught of racist slurs, Reverend Wright's declaratives, full-fledged Bill Ayers terrorist allegations, father's Muslim roots, etc --- how Obama weathers this coming storm will be the biggest determinant for his success.
I have no doubt that Obama's team has a strategy for the coming attacks; whether their "new kind" of campaigning can hold off the old style of negativism is the main strategic battleground between now and November 4.
McCain's actually beginning to remind me a bit of the Clinton campaign. Hillary forced things; wasn't herself, and her tactics were foolish and transparent. So are McCain's. What people have always liked about McCain was that he always seemed to have a bit of decency. But look at his ads: in bad taste; lies, and very manipulative. Things are catching up with him. And the choice of Palin has really begun to wear on people with her inability to discuss issues in an in-depth manner.
Yeah, Conrad. And Obama isn't going to let anything go. He's forceful, and it's going to serve him well against attacks.
The GOP has ravaged every element of this country in the last eight years. An unnecessary War killing hundreds of thousands, the creation of more enemies abroad, destroyed reputation, dissemination of government agencies, corruption of the Executive Branch, corruption of the Judicial Branch, jobs lost, health care lost, financial meltdown, no energy plan, etc. Anyone that would vote for any Republican that has supported this regime is nuts. Remember, with a couple of rare exceptions, nearly every Republican in Congress, in the State Houses and Governors have gone along with everything BushCo has done, defending him every step of the way.
Okay, good for Obama. Everyone seems to love him so much and they have so much faith in his abilities to lead us out of economic despair. Everyone, let's go ahead and put him in the White House and it'll be hell to impeach him once we see who he really is behind all the talk. Who will be in his Cabinet? What kind of judges will he appoint? Will he be able to handle Iran, North Korea, and Columbia? What is he hiding? Things to consider...
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